Posts Tagged ‘Financial Planning’

One of several markets we are watching to help answer

the Inflation vs Deflation Outcome

of the current financial crisis is Silver !

In addition to Silver, we are watching to see which way the Stock Market and the CRB index break (see Stock Market Head and Shoulders formation from last weeks blog entry).

But remember the following Fibonacci Financial Mantra :

There are a wide variety of ways to protect your assets and profit from this tidal change ranging from the very conservative to the highly speculative.

BUT you need active guidance – Contact Us at Fibonacci Financial.

Do not get the idea that you can trade or make investment decisions from our blog entries.  These are EDUCATIONAL and an introduction to our services and DO NOT constitute investment advice.

Dear Reader,

The Markets have been in a Holding Pattern since late last year.

That’s about to change DRAMATICALLY.

The Stock Market as exemplified by the Dow Jones Industrial Average  (aka: the D.J.I.A.) has been stuck in a trading range roughly between 10,000- and 11,000+.

For the last year the D.J.I.A. trading range market has been forming a potentially OMINOUS Head and Shoulders Top.  This is just a potential until the neck line is broken decisively!

Remember Summer School over a year ago when we first reviewed the Head and Shoulders Formation? If you need a refresher course,

Go here : http://www.fibonaccifinancial.com/financialwarroom/if-bonzo-is-buying-then-you-should-be-selling/

When this neck line in the D.J.I.A. is broken decisively,

I believe we will be entering  a very dangerous period of HYPER-DEFLATION.

The Federal Government’s Plunge Protection Team ( aka the PPT) have been very busy!  With the X-Ray vision provided by the COT (Commitment Of Traders) reports we can see that each time the D.J.I.A. is in danger of breaking down, the PPT  jumps in with tones of money and buys the market. If they loose this game (which I suspect they will a la King Canute) the breaking of the neck line will be even more ominous and meaningful. If all the Fed’s horses (fiat money) and all the Fed’s men (Ivy League Whiz Kids – full of hubris) can support the market – there’s a hard rain coming…..

This has real potential of making the Great Depression of the 1930s look like a dress rehearsal. For some interesting insight into the potential magnitude of this HyperDeflation buy The Great Wave by David Hackett Fisher and read the last chapter. (FYI David is not an economist but he is a Pulitzer Prize winning author/historian).

Go here to Amazon.com and buy it!

http://www.amazon.com/Great-Wave-Revolutions-Rhythm-History/dp/019512121X/ref=sr_1_1?s=books&ie=UTF8&qid=1283634769&sr=1-1

To sum up – It’s time to WAKE UP again. Go to Safety! Don’t wait till the D.J.I.A. breaks the Neck Line at approx. 9500

You may still have a couple of months (till after the election), a couple of weeks or only a couple of days !

DON’T WAIT –  ACT NOW !

Have You Missed My Posts ?

If you have missed my posts while I was on Sabbatical and want me to post more often again

- Please drop me a line.

Are Your Assets Allocated Properly ?

And REMEMBER

There are a wide variety of ways to protect your assets and profit from this tidal change ranging from the very conservative to the highly speculative.

BUT you need active guidance – Contact Us at Fibonacci Financial.

Do not get the idea that you can trade or make investment decisions from my blog entries.  These are EDUCATIONAL and an introduction to my services and DO NOT constitute investment advice.

Vindication ?

The Wall Street Journal

Announces

The Worst Decade For Stocks EVER!

“The U.S. stock market is wrapping up what is likely to be its worst decade ever.

In nearly 200 years of recorded stock-market history, no calendar decade has seen such a dismal performance as the 2000s.

Investors would have been better off investing in pretty much anything else, from bonds to gold or even just stuffing money under a mattress. Since the end of 1999, stocks traded on the New York Stock Exchange have lost an average of 0.5% a year thanks to the twin bear markets this decade.”  TOM LAURICELLA WSJ digital December 20,2009.

I started aggressively moving clients out of Stocks and into T-Bills during the 2000-2001 market blow-off and then again in late 2007.

This appeared foolish to my clients, family and friends many times during the last nine years.

But my evolving

Asset Allocation Model

has kept my client’s investments and retirement plan assets SAFE.

BUT NOW

“Danger Will Robinson, Danger!”

The Worst Is Yet To Come!

So Stay Tuned.

Remember Gentle Reader – the best strategy is still:

Every Gambler knows the secret to survival is “knowing what to throw away and what to keep”

The MDD4 is meant to help you know what to throw away and what to keep.

No Dear Reader, Investing is not Gambling.   But most people who think they are investing really are gambling.

Gambling has a negative mathematical expectation.  Ergo, you lose in the long run! It is what keeps the lights on in Las Vegas and pays the massive bonuses on Wall Street.  .

But becoming a serious card player in games such as Texas Hold’em has many, many valuable lessons to teach investors about money management and the psychology of investing.  In investing, you are your own worst enemy.

If you feel you could use my help please drop me a line.

This alarming ABC expose is a MUST watch.

When I was directing clients OUT of Real Estate 3 years ago,  THEY thought I was crazy ! 

That is why professional guidance is so important.  NO dear reader, “guidance” from a SALESPERSON doesn’t count.

It is incredibly hard to go against the herd at the proper time or for sales people to go against their commission instinct.

Watch this You Tube and enjoy.

On late night TV they are again saying —-  ” Now is the best  time to invest in Real Estate !”

Are the Real Estate Gurus right?

If the answer to this question  is important for you – Let’s chat

Real Estate ALWAYS goes UP!

But I vas just following everyone’s orders.

Remember, there is a time and season for every  MDD4 quadrant of your portfolio.

What is Real Estate’s season now?  Don’t be a stooge – ask.

Yes Dear Reader, Silver and Gold rallied after the COT Sell Signal.

One of the advantages of following the COT reports is to help determine which breakouts are the beginning of a new trend and which are not.  With the COT reports providing a sell signal on Silver, I give this rally low odds.

Also, The Commercials (insiders) set up their positions early and against short term trends.  Patience, patience

The odds still favor a failed rally attempt in the precious metals and not the start of the next major leg up in a bull market move.

FYI – while Gold and Silver represent a significant part of the Core holdings in our portfolio right now, they were acquired at substantially lower prices.

What Are All Those XXXX’s and OOOO’s on the Charts?

( No Dear Reader They Don’t Represent Hugs n Kisses! )

Several readers have indicated that they are not familiar with the point and figure charts that I use for illustration purposes in the blog.  John Murphy (world class technical analyst) provides an excellent overview of Point and Figure charting on his web site StockCharts.com.  If anyone is interested in why I use these “old fashioned” P and F charts drop a comment requesting additional information.

Do not get the idea that you can trade or make investment decisions from my blog entries.  These are an introduction to my services and do not constitute investment advice.

Repeat 20 Times – 90% of Portfolio Performance Comes From:

Asset Allocation!

“Dramatic support for the importance of asset allocation is provided by a study of 91 large pension plans covering the period 1974 through 1983. 1  The study sought to attribute the variation in total returns among the plans to three factors: asset allocation policy, market timing, and security selection.  The study dramatically supports the notion that asset selection policy is the primary determinant of investment performance , with market timing and security selection both playing a minor role.  The study was subsequently updated with additional data and once again arrived at the same conclusion.2  The pie chart shows the results: asset allocation policy explained 91.5 % of the variation in total return among the pension plans.  The selection and market timing factors, by contrast, explained only 4.6% and 1.8% of the variation, respectively.” 

Excerpted from: Asset Allocation, Balancing Financial Risk, Second Edition, Forward by Sir John Templeton and written by Roger C. Gibson, pages 12 and 13.

If you haven’t read the recent blog entry titled Avoid the “Life-Cycle Investing” Trap! please do so now.

Footnotes:

1. Gary P. Brinson, L Randolph Hood, and Gilbert L. Beebower, “Determinants of Portfolio Performance,” Financial Analysts Journal, July-August 1986, pp. 39-44.

2.  Gary P. Brinson, Brian D. Singer, and Gilbert L. Beebower,
“Determinants of Portfolio Performance II: An Update,” Financial Analysts Journal, May-June 1991, pp. 40-48.

The Second Article in the Silver Phoenix series has been published.

To read it just look for the Ezine widget towards the bottom of the right hand column.

In Your Humble Partner’s Opinion Demanding “Coin Metal Silver” Is THE Most Revolutionary Act That Can Be Performed At This Time To Move The U.S.A. Back To Sound Money.

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Financial Fulcrum May Edition

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Dear Reader I have briefly covered the La Vida LOCA (as a concept – but not all the applications yet) and would appreciate your reviewing the above checklist and let me know which item you would like me to cover in my next financial planning article.  So please drop me a comment with your requests.