Fibonacci Financial

The inimitable Steve Briese of COT fame not only correctly identified the potential for a massive commodity collapse over a year ago but he is also the only analyst (in my humble opinion)  to have explained what really happened.  He laid it all out in his Barron’s article early last spring.

In his latest Bullish Review he indicates that while a buy signal has not been generated there has been a minor COT buy signal in the NYFE Dollar Index.   The Commercials (Insiders) have been accumulating (buying) dollars on this decline!   LET ME BE CLEAR – I use the Bullish Review as a key tool (Steve is brilliant) for determining asset allocation but neither Steve Briese nor the Bullish Review is responsible for my recommendations. As the dollar approaches the December 2008 low, a low risk buying opportunity will be available.  A stop loss could be placed just below the December 2008 low.

Yes I know that “everyone”  who is “anyone” thinks the dollar is on its last legs, may it RIP. 

And you dear reader thought I was a pessimist.  So, what does a contrarian do?  Look for an opportunity to buy the Buck on the cheap. 

Steve Briese identified the end of a 6 year dollar bear market in September 2008 (great call Steve) and the US Dollar will most likely climb its wall of worry for a couple of years now.  The enormous debt accumulated in dollars constitutes a massive historic short against the dollar.  That massive short position constitutes highly combustible fuel for a buying explosion.  The only fly in the ointment would be if Helicopter Ben’s dollar drop (QE – quantitative easing) and the  O’Bomba Bailouts and Stimulus ignites inflation and another fiat money boom (low risk at this time).  Our portfolios are still on deflation watch.  I am keeping an open mind though.

One of the more conservative ways (as apposed to Forex or Futures)  that I am recommending to my active clients is to buy iPath shares of UUP.

Dear reader DON’T TRY THIS AT HOME, get professional guidance in determining whether this fits into your portfolio and in properly placing an order with appropriate stop loss protection.  Proper money management is a must.

What Are All Those XXXX’s and OOOO’s on the Charts?

( No Dear Reader They Don’t Represent Hugs n Kisses! )

Several readers have indicated that they are not familiar with the point and figure charts that I use for illustration purposes in the blog.  John Murphy (world class technical analyst) provides an excellent overview of Point and Figure charting on his web site StockCharts.com.  If anyone is interested in why I use these “old fashioned” P and F charts drop a comment requesting additional information.

Do not get the idea that you can trade or make investment decisions from my blog entries.  These are an introduction to my services and do not constitute investment advice.

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