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Executive Summary:
Massive Government and Bank interventions have created Manic Markets!
1. The break down of the gold/silver ratio and the break out of the GSCI commodity index are forcing me to consider that inflation may be the next significant challenge to the asset allocation equation.
2. There was another Dow Theory sell signal in March, but if on a severe pullback in the stock market there is a Dow Theory Buy signal I will follow suit and add stocks back to the asset allocation model for the first time in several years.
3. Flies in the ointment – commercial selling may cap the gold and silver markets create a failed rally attempt and turn the gold/silver ratio around. The breakout would prove to have been a false one.
4. The Commitment of Trader reports still support the belief that this is likely a bear market rally in stocks, precious metals and the oil/commodity complex.
5. Things I will be watching for that would force me to reconfigure my asset allocation that currently is leaning in a deflationary direction will be: A. a Dow Theory Buy signal for stocks on a steep correction. B. A break out to new highs in both gold and silver.
Stay tuned THESE ARE EXCITING AND DANGEROUS TIMES!
Dear reader I am still expecting DEFLATION to win BUT I will follow the price action.
Price Action Rules!!!
I have decided that initially the price for the premium services to be provided at Fibonacci Financial will not be Cash! The cost of premium service will be FEEDBACK/COMMENTS.
What will the premium services consist of? Initially:
1. Active Investment Allocation Guidance via access to the Market Decision Dashboard and the ability to drill down to the support backing up each item on the Dashboard ![]()
2. Integrated financial planning guidance and education.
3. Education in key economic concepts that will inform your investment, business and personal finance decisions.
Clocks ticking ……….